Even if you're new to harness racing, you can learn to do the most exciting thing in spectator sports -- picking the winners! Don't be discouraged by the apparently complicated numbers in the racing program. They mean something - something important - but they are explained elsewhere. Instead, we're going to give you a quick way to translate them into the answer to the question, "Who's going to win?" Our system is called the "Check Mark System:"
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The Driver Factor
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Drivers, much as other athletes, possess varying amounts of ability, and even the good ones have slumps. Fortunately, race tracks keep records of how a driver performs. Next to his or her name, you'll find statistics about their performance at the given track. For example, you might see something like this:
JOE DOKES red-gr-blu (112-23-15-11-.313)
Simply stated, driver Dokes (who wears red, green and blue colors) has driven in 112 races, winning 23 of them, finishing second 15 times, and finishing third 11 times. His "Universal Driver Rating" -- a number calculated like a batting average -- is .313. Any number over .300 is considered excellent. Check the drivers in the race you're handicapping; find the horse being driven by drivers whose average is .300 or over and put a checkmark next to the name of the horse. Next, let's see how the horse's average stacks.
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The Consistency Factor
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Consistency is perhaps the most outstanding characteristic of the standardbred horse. Good horses are able to perform well, week after week. Most racing programs will show records of these performances. In the upper left-hand portion of each horse's past performances, you'll see the fastest winning mile of the year listed, the number of starts, wins, seconds, thirds, and money won for the present and past years. It may look like this:
| Xyz |
1:592 |
1990 |
12 |
4 |
2 |
0 |
$25,432 |
| Abc5/8 |
1:581 |
1989 |
23 |
7 |
3 |
3 |
$42,994 |
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2, 1:581 |
Lifetime |
$68,426 |
The bottom line is the horse's career summary, showing how old he or she was when they won the fastest race of their career and how much money they have earned, all-time. If a horse has been 1-2-3 at least half of the time this year, put a check mark next to his name; if he's won at least one-third of his races this year, put another check mark there, too. Now, let's see how he stacks up versus the competition.
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The Class Factor
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Class as the term is applied to horses, comes from one thing and one thing only: horses who can go gaster and earn more money are said to be "classy." Better horses race for more money - that's why some races have higher purses. Thus, the purse will be our key to class. The purse for each race is shown on each past performance line.
If tonight's purse is less than what a horse raced for last time, he's "dropping" in class; conversely, if the purse tonight is greater than he raced for last time, he's "moving up" in class. Horses dropping in class have an advantage, so find them and give them another check mark. Next, let's look at our starting position.
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The Post Position Factor
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Post Position is another key. While it's true that "It's not where you start, but where you finish" applies to harness racing, post position is of great importance.
Horses starting from thi inside simply have less distance to travel. The key to post positions is idintifying the horses who will benefit from being inside. Put a check mark next to the names of the horses in posts one through five, and give another check mark to the horses in posts one through five who had been in higher post positions (six, seven, etc.) in their last start - they're going to have an easier time of it! Next: how fast?
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The Time Factor
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Time, and how it fits into the handicapping picture, depends on many factors. Just because a horse won in 1:58 last week, he may have raced againse classier ( and thus faster ) horses.
In general, though a horse who recently won a mile race in 1:58 should post a similiar time tonight. Our "Check Mark System" here calls for checks to be given - one each - to the three horses who posted the fastest times in their most recent races. Next, some fine tuning.
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The Form Factor
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Current Form is a term used to describe how well a horse has been performing. While class, time, and post position also help tell us how well he might do tonight, yet another symbol, the park-out symbol ("0"), which appears in the program when a horse raced "outside" (with other horses between him and the rail), might tell us even more.
Such park-out symbols, especially where they appera in winning or close efforts, are mighty signs of fitness. Give a check mark to horses who were parked-out in their last race - but only if they won or were within a length of the winner at the finish.
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To Sum It Up
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It's that simple. After checking this and checking that, it should be obvious that we'll want to bet on the horse with the most check marks. After devoting a few moments to the most important handicapping factors, we've learned a lot.
Soon, you'll become more familiar with the horses and drivers; come to know more about the importance of the factors at your track; and be able to better figure times and class.
Remember, picking the winner in each race is like solving a puzzle. What's the reward for all the hard work leading to our solution? A visit to the cashier!
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